The Next Gen's “Sure Thing” Career Path

Hello again my friend,

For a long time, we were told “go to university, get a degree, and you’ll have a job waiting for you.” It was the promise of a generation. It may have been true before. But it’s not anymore, for Millennials and Gen Z.

Maybe parents rammed it down our throats. Maybe you never found something worth turning into a career, so you went to school to “figure things out” since that was “safe.”

Again, not so true anymore.

In fact, an Oxford study concluded that recent college grads (22 to 27 year-olds), are facing an unemployment rate of 6% (the average in USA is 4.1%). That’s terribly high.

But this post is not just about how ‘school sucks,’ per-se. It’s about where the opportunity is now, and whether or not we’re just replacing one broken promise with another.

So, what is the safe path career path for the next generation? And is it legit?

Let’s get into it.

Some of you will hate this, but I don't see how it can really be denied at this point.

The safe career path is no longer going to university and getting a degree. It's actually becoming an influencer (aka Content Creator).

That's right. The people who post content (Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, maybe a newsletter), build a following, and use that following to earn an income may have had it right all along.

Getting 100,000 real humans to see and engage with your content week over week might be worth more than going to university for four years and getting a job (if you can even get one).

I’ve interviewed some of the biggest creators in AI, work with small creators daily at beehiiv, and can confirm that it’s real. Not easy, but real.

To be clear, I'm not saying everyone should be posting photos of themselves in swimsuits and calling themselves an 'influencer.' Not at all. Nor should people be posting brain rot videos 24/7. I'm talking about:

These are people who post regularly, build a following, and make money by advertising other people's products to that audience. Ideally, this is all within a specific niche.

Yes, many influencers start their own businesses, but that's a separate thing altogether, so I'm not referring to that here.

Here's where we need to get brutally honest.

Algorithms change. It's competitive. What's the backup plan if this career never takes off? I get it. It's fair to consider this a joke.

But let's look at the math: The influencer marketing industry was valued at $24 billion in 2024. While it's true that the top 1% probably do better than the bottom 50%, that 1% earns millions per year.

Here's the uncomfortable part though: for every successful influencer, there are probably 100 who never make it. That's a 1% success rate.

While there's no definitive data on "professional content creation" success rates, we can look at adjacent metrics:

Compare that to college graduates, where 94% find employment eventually (even if 6% are initially unemployed).

So why am I calling this a "safe path" when the success rate is objectively terrible?

Because the old "safe path" is breaking down too. Students pay anywhere from $20,000 to $30,000 per year to go to university in Canada (almost triple that in the USA), for four years. Then they graduate into a job market where they're more likely to be unemployed than the general population.

And also because most of the adjacent statistics are about volume and time. The ‘average’ is so low because the barrier of entry is so low. It’s essentially zero. In every situation where the barrier is zero, there’s so many people at the bottom, that it drags the averages down.

I actually think with dedicated time and effort, the success rate is much, much higher (and that’s not just because I see all the data we have at beehiiv).

This is the key insight.

The world is full of change. The rate of change is getting faster. Will any career path be viable for more than 20 years with AI transforming industries?

People get medical, financial, or personal advice from ChatGPT. Companies hired fewer accountants when accounting software hit the market. AI is replacing people every day.

Years ago, an agency would be paid $500,000 to produce a commercial for a big pharma company. Actors, sets, scripts, booking venues—everything cost money. And then they'd have to pay TV networks to air those commercials. Very expensive.

Some guy on Twitter remade a very good pharma commercial for $500 in AI credits. It took less than 1 day.

Nothing is 'safe' forever. As AI gets better, it's even riskier. But just like how being an influencer comes with risks, so does any job. The difference is that traditional careers require massive upfront investment (college debt) for uncertain returns, while content creation requires time investment for uncertain returns.

I think that’s why “Influencer” will be the new go to career path over “College” for an entire generation. It may be not ‘easy’ per-se, but there’s no upfront investment, no politics, and no uncertainty in the job market after. And as I mentioned above, it seems harder than it is because with no barrier to entry, there’s tons of people who try and give up after a week or two.

Will AI replace human marketers, promoters, and influencers? Maybe. But due to issues of trust and authenticity, that probably won't happen very soon. There are already so many scams that while AI will be more productive eventually, people likely won't trust its opinions when they don't know who wrote that script, built that bot, or why.

Not safe forever, but safe for now, which is good because the numbers are still going in the right direction.

Gen Z grew up watching this happen.

They saw YouTubers buy houses. They watched TikTokers get brand deals. They know that 100,000 followers in a reasonable niche means real earning potential, often more than a job fresh out of school.

Millennials and Gen X are still adjusting to this reality, but Gen Z was raised on it. To them, spending four years and $100,000+ on college for a 6% chance of unemployment seems like the risky path.

Even though millions of people are trying to be influencers now, the industry continues to expand.

Did you know newspapers are still making money? U.S. newspapers generated an estimated $9.8 billion in advertising revenue in 2022, and print advertising revenue was estimated at $8.8 billion in 2024. So while traditional media is getting destroyed, there's still $18+ billion flowing through those channels.

If anybody tells you it's "too late" to be an influencer, they're probably wrong. The industry is projected to grow almost 4x by 2030. There's never been a better time to try it because enough people have succeeded to create a blueprint, while it's also set to grow by massive amounts.

But here's the biggest opportunity that most people are missing: corporate/employee creators are being seen as the 'next big thing'.

This isn't about quitting your job to become a full-time influencer. It's about professionals who already have careers and expertise using content creation to amplify their success.

The marketing industry is hungry for these voices. Not the 22 year old yapping about nothing. The 30, 40, 50 year old career man or woman who genuinely has a lot to offer the next generation. Folks with actual expertise to share, not just lifestyle content.

I think that's the real opportunity for people who have been thinking about the 'content thing' but aren't sure what's next.

Obviously, being an influencer isn't for everyone (neither was university ever for everyone). And even if it is, it’s not always the same journey. There are different formats for different people. I don't really post on Instagram; I write my content in this newsletter. Some may love posting YouTube videos, others may prefer talking on a podcast.

Historically, this path was often seen as vain, naive, or silly. Even just the idea of posting pictures every day or recording yourself talking about your job on camera could easily come off as self-absorbed.

Today it's different, especially for Gen Z, who grew up knowing that an online following means real earning potential. This generation’s ‘safe choice’ is no longer university. It’s this.

But for the rest of us, who maybe aren't 22 anymore, it's less about choosing between university and influencing, and more about recognizing that every generation gets sold a "sure thing.”

Our parents were sold the college degree. We're being sold this, and while it looks good now, we don’t know what it’ll be in 2035. Maybe the real insight is that there is no "safe path" anymore, just different types of risk. The question becomes: which risk do you want to take?

The one that costs $100,000 upfront with a 6% chance of unemployment? Or the one that costs your time and maybe even your dignity with a 5-10% chance of significant success? You know my answer.

Food for thought.

Thanks for reading!